Simple Stock Model aggregates financial and economic data so that investors can easily form a comprehensive data-based outlook on the market. This is a completely free resource provided by Movement Capital

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION


Industrial production measures the total value of output for all manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utility facilities located in the United States. It’s a leading economic indicator and is good way to quickly gauge how the manufacturing portion of the U.S. economy is doing.

Filter Rule: If the yearly percentage change in industrial production is equal to or below 0%, be out of the market
Notes: IP data is typically released 16 days after month-end and my data is lagged to reflect this delay
Current Reading: +1.6% YoY
Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

RETAIL SALES


Retail sales reflect the total value of sales at the retail level. It’s a primary measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity in the U.S.

Filter Rule: If the yearly percentage change in real retail sales is equal to or below 0%, be out of the market
Notes: Retail sales data is usually released 13 days after month-end and my data is lagged to reflect this delay
Current Reading: +2.2% YoY
Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE


The unemployment rate is the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. It is a lagging economic indicator, but a persistently rising unemployment rate indicates a weak labor market and thus potentially weak consumer spending.

Filter Rule: If the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to its 12-month average, be out of the market
Notes: The unemployment rate is released on the first Friday after month-end and my data is lagged to reflect this delay
Current Reading: 4.1%, below the 12-month average of 4.5%
Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

ISM PMI


The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) releases the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) each month. The PMI is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It’s a leading indicator of economic health. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, below 50 indicates contraction.

Filter Rule: If the ISM manufacturing PMI is below 50, be out of the market
Notes: Manufacturing PMI data is released on the first business day after month-end and my data is lagged to reflect this delay
Current Reading: 58.7
Data Source: Quandl

HOUSING PRICES


There are a variety of indices that monitor housing prices, and I choose to use the long-running 10-city index that Karl Case and Robert Shiller developed. The S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index measures the change in value of residential real estate in 10 metropolitan areas of the U.S.

Filter Rule: If the yearly percentage change in the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is equal to or below 0%, be out of the market
Notes: S&P releases the 10-city HPI two months after month-end and my data is lagged to reflect this delay
Current Reading: +5.4% YoY
Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

S&P 500 EPS


Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is largely driven by sales growth and profit margin expansion. Additionally, share buybacks are a contributing factor in earnings per share growth. People view EPS growth as a sign of the improving profitability of American companies.

Filter Rule: If the yearly percentage change in nominal EPS is equal to or below 0%, be out of the market
Notes: S&P releases finalized quarterly EPS data four months after quarter-end. Robert Shiller computes monthly earnings data from the S&P four-quarter totals through linear interpolation. My data is based off of this Shiller data and is lagged to reflect the S&P delay. Also, the EPS graph below looks weird due to the huge 700%+ YoY increase in EPS in 2009.
Current Reading: +19.7% YoY
Data Source: Robert Shiller

SITE INFO

All data on Simple Stock Model is refreshed each weekend. The site has been updated to reflect data as of 11/10/2017



CONTACT ME

If you have any questions about this site or any of the indicators it covers, send me an e-mail at adam@movement.capital

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